Freie Universität Berlin
Planetary Sciences and Remote Sensing — Freie Universität Berlin
Freie Universität Berlin
University of Wisconsin–Madison
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
Planetary Science Institute
Queen’s University Belfast
04 Jun 2026

For scientists
For citizens






Clockwise from upper-left: raw tile → fan markings → blotch markings → blotch reduction → fan reduction → catalog entry at 50 % majority vote. Full pipeline in Aye et al. (2019).
Blotch-area distributions on the same tiles — three science-team experts (GP, MES, KMA) vs the citizen catalog
What carries error — and what doesn’t: covered area and deposit counts inherit this edge ambiguity, but a fan’s measured wind direction is sharp and reliable.
p4toolsPer-tile fractional coverage (method by Tom Ihro)
p4tools.io.get_region_names()Distribution shape is strikingly repeatable across MY 28–32. So far, so reassuring…





Inca City (low, canonical) vs Ithaca (~10× higher). Compare within a region across years — never pool across regions that differ this much.


Ithaca’s ice is carpeted with large fans → ~10× a typical ROI’s coverage. Same physics, extreme expression — keep it separate in any cross-ROI aggregate.


Per-ROI (MY × Ls) heatmaps. Ithaca is the outlier (~10× typical) — it must be treated separately in any cap-wide aggregate.


All six Mars Years’ footprints pile onto the same patch — MY 33 (yellow) right in the middle. Comparing years within a ROI compares the same ground, not different terrain.



| MY × ROI | n | Signature | Physical reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| MY 31 Manhattan Classic | 6 | fans ×1.24 longer · ×0.74 narrower · low activity | stronger, more directional wind |
| MY 33 Ithaca | 5 | activity ×2.04 · fan-fraction 0.63 → 0.18 | more eruptions (shared) + calm local wind → blotch surge |
| MY 33 Manhattan Classic | 5 | activity ×2.22 · fan/blotch ratio normal | more eruptions (shared) + normal wind → calm wind is local to Ithaca |
| MY 32 Ithaca | 3 | tile-coverage shifted low | suggestive — needs more observations |
MY 33 across both ROIs: the ×2 activity is shared (a candidate global driver); the fan→blotch flip is local to Ithaca (a local wind anomaly). Every one of these stays hidden until ROI and Ls are matched.
An average over a heterogeneous, unevenly-sampled population is not a measurement — it is an artifact of the sampling.
p4tools)
K.-Michael Aye · Planet Four · Planetary Seminar FU Berlin · 2026-06-04